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Email Tracking Confidence Scoring: The 5 Grades Explained

How a tracker tells a person reading your email from an Apple pre-fetch, a Defender scan or a Slack link preview, and the exact rules Outsolvi runs.

N
Nate Summers
Co-Founder, Outsolvi
Published May 31, 2026Updated September 22, 20269 min read844 words
Quick Answer844 words · 9 min read

Confidence scoring grades every tracking-pixel request by how likely it was a person opening the email rather than a machine. Outsolvi puts each open in one of five grades: verified (a reply came back on the thread), most-likely human, possibly human, machine preview (Apple Mail Privacy Protection) and scanner. Only the first two count as opens. The grade comes from rules, not a guess: who fetched the image, what software identified itself, how the timing lines up with delivery, what happened next, and whether it was you. Every open shows its grade and the reason in plain words.

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Table of contents10 sections
  1. Why a raw open count stopped meaning much
  2. The five grades
  3. Rule one: who fetched the image
  4. Rule two: what identified itself
  5. Rule three: timing
  6. Rule four: what happened next
  7. Rule five: was it you?
  8. Where the rules can still be wrong
  9. How we check the rules
  10. What to do with the grades
Topics:email trackingOutlook email trackingGmail email trackingAI email insightsfollow-up automationconsideration

Key takeaways

  • →Outsolvi puts every open in one of five grades. Only verified and most-likely human count; the rest stay on the timeline with the reason.
  • →A reply on the thread upgrades an open to verified. Nothing else is as strong.
  • →Gmail's and Yahoo's image proxies fetch the image when someone opens the email, so those opens count. Repeat fetches within ten minutes are one open.
  • →Apple Mail Privacy Protection fetches the image when the email arrives, read or not, so those opens don't count unless the reader clicks or replies.
  • →Scanners give themselves away: known scanner software, scripts, opens faster than any person could manage, bursts, and Microsoft Defender scans in the minutes after delivery.
  • →Your own opens are set aside too: the tracker knows your devices, the IPs you've flagged and the moments right after you send.

This is how Outsolvi decides whether an open was a person. It's written from the rules the product actually runs, in plain words, so you can judge the grading for yourself rather than take a score on trust. It's the technical companion to The State of B2B Email Tracking in 2026.

Why a raw open count stopped meaning much

A tracking pixel is a tiny image. When something loads it, the tracker records an open. For years that something was almost always a person's mail app. Three changes broke that.

Apple Mail Privacy Protection. With Protect Mail Activity on, Apple's Mail app downloads remote content in the background when a message arrives, whether or not the reader engages with it, and it does so through relays that hide the reader's address.[1] Apple Mail accounted for 62 percent of the opens Litmus measured in July 2026.[2]

Image proxies. Since 2013, Gmail has fetched images through Google's own servers rather than from the reader's device.[3] That hides the reader's location, but the fetch still happens when someone opens the message, which matters below.

Security scanners. Corporate email security checks links and images before people touch them. With Safe Links turned on, Microsoft Defender for Office 365 scans a message's links before delivering it,[4] and Proofpoint and Mimecast rewrite links so they can check each destination.[5][6] At large corporate domains, Omnivery found 80 to 95 percent of clicks came from bots.[8]

Put those together and a raw open count mixes real reads with machine traffic in proportions you can't see. The fix isn't a smaller number. It's grading every open and showing why.

The five grades

GradeWhat it meansCounted?Example reason you'll see
VerifiedA reply came back on the threadYesreply received
Most-likely humanIt looks like a person opening the emailYesopened in Gmail, opened in Outlook desktop
Possibly humanToo little to go on, or it could be youNo, showncould be your own Sent folder, datacenter (could be corp egress)
Machine previewApple fetched the image on deliveryNo, unless a click or reply followsreached an Apple Mail inbox
ScannerA security system or a scriptNoMicrosoft Defender security scan, faster than any human could open

Behind the grades are four scores: verified 100, most-likely human 70, possibly human 20, and 0 for both machine grades. Anything at or above 25 counts. Your own opens are set aside with their own reasons, such as "your device, at send time".

Rule one: who fetched the image

The first question is whose computer asked for the pixel.

  • Apple's relays mean Mail Privacy Protection. Apple publishes the address ranges they use, and Outsolvi refreshes that list daily and checks every open against it. The open is graded machine preview.
  • Google's and Yahoo's image proxies mean the reader opened the message in Gmail or Yahoo Mail. The open counts. Google's proxy often fetches the same image several times for one view, from different addresses, so every fetch within ten minutes of a counted proxy open is grouped under it.
  • Microsoft's cloud, minutes after delivery, is Microsoft Defender checking the message. Those hits are graded scanner.
  • A datacenter is where scanners live, but it's also where many companies route their staff's traffic. A datacenter request with a stripped-down browser signature soon after delivery is graded scanner. One with a full browser signature could be a person behind a company gateway, so it's graded possibly human.
  • An ordinary network with a full browser signature, more than a second after delivery, is graded most-likely human. Repeat views from the same device are grouped into one open.

Rule two: what identified itself

Every request carries a User-Agent, a short string naming the software that made it.[7] Some security scanners name themselves there, and those are graded scanner. Scripts and HTTP libraries don't read email, so a request from one is set aside as an automated client. A request that looks like Outlook for Windows fetching the image is labeled "opened in Outlook desktop".

Rule three: timing

Some timing is physically impossible for a person. An open that lands faster than anyone could open and render an email is graded scanner, as are bursts of opens arriving together, which is how scanners that sweep a whole mailbox behave. A scanner that opens the email and clicks its links in one pass shows up as an open-and-click combo and is set aside the same way.

Timing also catches you. An open from the IP address you sent from, in the first minute after sending, is your own device, often an add-in or a browser tab loading the image. And if you send from a gmail.com address, a Google proxy fetch in the first five minutes could be you checking your Sent folder, because that view goes through the same proxy. It's graded possibly human rather than counted.

Rule four: what happened next

The strongest evidence arrives later. A reply on the thread upgrades the open to verified. A click on one of your links after an open supports it. An Apple Mail fetch isn't counted as an open; if that reader clicks or replies, the click or reply is recorded on its own.

Clicks get the same treatment as opens. When a link is pasted into Slack, Discord, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Telegram, Facebook or Twitter, the app fetches it to build a preview, and that's labeled as a link preview in that app, not a click by your prospect.

Rule five: was it you?

A tracker that counts your own opens flatters you. Outsolvi sets aside an open when:

  • your Outlook add-in or Gmail extension told Outsolvi you were the one opening it
  • it came from an IP address you've told it to ignore, or a device you marked with Not me
  • you sent the email to yourself
  • it came from the exact IPv6 address you sent from, which in practice only your own device has
  • it came from a device you've signed in to Outsolvi from

It deliberately doesn't treat a shared office IPv4 address as you. A whole office can share one address, and a colleague of your prospect behind the same kind of network is a real reader.

Where the rules can still be wrong

  • A reader in Apple Mail who never clicks or replies is never counted, even if they read every word. The rules would rather miss a read than count a machine.
  • A person behind a corporate gateway can look like a datacenter and land in possibly human.
  • Someone on your own office network opening the email in Outlook can look like you re-reading it. That's graded possibly human with the reason "Outlook on your network, could be you re-reading".

These cases stay visible on the timeline with their reasons, so you can make the call yourself.

How we check the rules

There's no single accuracy percentage, and we don't quote one. Every week, for each rule that fired at least five times in the last 30 days, Outsolvi compares how often a reply or a user confirmed it with how often a user overrode it. A rule that starts misfiring shows up as its own number falling, and our team changes it. The full method is on the methodology page.

What to do with the grades

Act on opens that count, clicks that follow them and replies. In Outsolvi, an email becomes a hot lead once it has five or more real opens and two or more link clicks, and you see a flame on it. Don't mention in your follow-up that you saw someone open the email. Use the signal to decide when to write, not what to write.

If you want to see how your own opens break down, the 14-day trial needs no card, and every open on every tracked email shows its grade and the reason from the first send.

Stop trusting raw open counts.

Outsolvi grades every open, so you know who read your email and which opens were an Apple Mail preview or a security scanner. 14-day free trial, no credit card.

Try Outsolvi free$7/mo yearly · 14-day trial · no credit card

Sources

Primary sources cited in this article. Numbers correspond to superscript markers in the body.

  1. [1]
    Apple. "Mail Privacy Protection & Privacy." Apple Legal. https://www.apple.com/legal/privacy/data/en/mail-privacy-protection/
  2. [2]
    Litmus. "Email Client Market Share." July 2026. https://www.litmus.com/email-client-market-share
  3. [3]
    Google Workspace. "Images now showing." Gmail image-proxy announcement, December 2013. https://workspace.google.com/blog/product-announcements/images-now-showing
  4. [4]
    Microsoft. "Safe Links in Microsoft Defender for Office 365." Microsoft Learn. https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/defender-office-365/safe-links-about
  5. [5]
    Proofpoint. "Proofpoint Essentials URL Defense." Data sheet. https://www.proofpoint.com/us/resources/data-sheets/essentials-url-defense
  6. [6]
    Mimecast. "Targeted Threat Protection: URL Protect overview." Mimecast Community. https://community.mimecast.com/s/article/email-security-cloud-gateway-targeted-threat-protection-url-protection-overview
  7. [7]
  8. [8]
    Omnivery. "The State of Email Bots 2026." August 2026. https://omnivery.com/blog/the-state-of-email-bots-2026

Frequently asked questions

Direct answers to the questions readers of this article most often ask.

What is email tracking confidence scoring?+

Grading each open by how likely it was a person rather than a machine. Outsolvi uses five grades: verified, most-likely human, possibly human, machine preview and scanner. Verified and most-likely human count as opens. The other three stay visible on the email's timeline with the reason they were set aside.

Why not count every pixel load as an open?+

Because machines load tracking pixels too. Apple Mail Privacy Protection downloads remote content in the background when an email arrives, whether or not anyone reads it, and Apple Mail accounted for 62 percent of the opens Litmus measured in July 2026. Security gateways fetch links and images to check them, and at large corporate domains Omnivery found 80 to 95 percent of clicks came from bots. A raw count mixes all of that with real reads.

Does a Gmail proxy open count?+

Yes. Gmail fetches images through its own proxy when someone opens the message, so a proxy fetch means a person opened the email. One view can trigger several fetches, so Outsolvi groups repeat fetches within ten minutes into one open. One exception: if you send from a gmail.com address, a fetch in the first five minutes may be you looking at your own Sent folder, so it's graded possibly human rather than counted.

What happens to Apple Mail opens?+

They're graded machine preview with the reason "reached an Apple Mail inbox" and don't count, because Apple fetches the image on delivery. If the same reader clicks a link or replies, the click or reply is recorded on its own.

How does it spot a security scanner?+

Several ways. Some scanners name themselves in the request. Scripts and HTTP libraries don't read email, so they're set aside. Opens that land faster than a person could open anything, bursts of opens and clicks arriving together, and Microsoft Defender's checks from Microsoft's cloud in the minutes after delivery are all graded scanner, with the reason shown.

How accurate is it?+

There's no single accuracy figure, and we won't invent one. What runs is a weekly check of every rule: how often a reply or a user confirmed it against how often a user overrode it, over the last 30 days. A rule without enough feedback reports nothing rather than a guess. The method is on our methodology page.

Can I see why an open was graded the way it was?+

Yes. Every open on a tracked email shows its grade and a reason in plain words, such as "opened in Gmail", "opened in Outlook desktop", "reached an Apple Mail inbox" or "Microsoft Defender security scan".

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Nate SummersCo-Founder, Outsolvi

Writing about email tracking, follow-up timing, and AI in sales for teams who hit send on real pipelines. Outsolvi is built for Outlook and Gmail, with graded opens and Write with AI follow-ups from $7/mo billed yearly.

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